Edited cause I got the encounter mechanic wrong. More units moving give better odds, not equal. Plus math was spotty.

Neutral encounter mechanics are here. Explains why I encountered twice as many Ghosts as Skeletons in Pogrom Forest with my test data - Ghosts have lower LUK.

Every 10 game minutes for an encounter check is 40 frames on fastest speed 3 = 0.67 seconds. There is first a 1-10 roll for which unit is checked to be moving and if so, rolled for an encounter. A full 10 units deployed and moving is 10x the encounters, if all are within the same LUK range.

We have some downtime on Sharom Border while units deploy so can take laps hunting Hawk Man. Conveniently tied for lowest LUK in the game at 42, giving a 10% encounter rate if #1 is rolled for Opinion Leader, or 15% if #2 is rolled with Witch as leader.

For just our Opinion Leader's unit moving, odds of neutral encounter within 240 frames = 4.0 seconds spent on ocean tile for 6 checks are 1 - (1 - 1/10×0.1)^6 = 5.85% with no manip. Witch also moving on Ocean, or Forest for Golem, and edited with enough kill power, is 8.70%. Odds of either are 1 - odds of neither = 14.01%. I don't like further 1 in 10 odds of item drop...then odds of useful item, but I thought of a backup strat:

1. After killing Hawk Man, Opinion Leader becomes level 2 after the Usar fight. This otherwise requires a Wizard kill on English SNES, PSX and Saturn releases and that takes a Tarot card and Tactics shenanigans. The level up normally doesn't matter since you don't get another level up at Sirius and get a guaranteed one at Debonair. Same level after Debonair.
2. The trick is you instead fight Kapella, who is 6 levels higher than level 2 Opinion Leader, versus 5 with Sirius, for another guaranteed level up. Now you're 1 level ahead the whole game. Is a riskier fight but potentially faster with this Tarot strat for Ianuki Lord:
3. Warren's hitrate on Kapella is 60%. Generic Wizard hitrate rises from 40% to 50% with guaranteed Mystic Mace equipped. If 60% Ianuki/Sonic Blade also hits, it's a 1 round kill. I calculated a 34% chance to no Tarot kill without Mystic Mace and 44% chance with. Going Forest over Lake delays Sunshine until Antalia and Zeteginea shops but Moonbeam from Dalmuhd Desert shop can work as one due the long stages.

I'm testing the damage formula before making a calculator for it. Easy to load a save and advance the RNG with Joker, or use a Strength Potion or Promotion on a non-combatant, or Recruit at Town, or use a Dowsing Rod to pull a buried treasure.

I recorded the damage from the same battle with 0 to 20 Jokers used right before it started and each result was unique. I then testing combinations of RNG advancement to duplicate a battle outcome:

• 1 Joker = 1 Strength Potion
• 2 Jokers = 1 Dowsing Rod = 2 Strength Potion
• 3 Jokers = 1 Promotion = 2 Dowsing Rods = 2 Strength Potions + 1 Dowsing Rod
• 4 Jokers = 1 Recruit at Town
• 5 Jokers = 1 Dowsing Rod + 1 Promotion = 3 Dowsing Rods
• 7 Jokers = 2 Promotions = 4 Dowsing Rods
• 8 Jokers = 2 Recruits at Town

Doing 1 Recruit + 1 Dowsing Rod, 1 Recruit + 1 Promotion, 3 Promotions, 3 Recruits, 3 Strength Potions all had unique results. Would be nice if each method advanced the RNG a consistent amount but we can't have nice things.

The one consistent observation was the order of operations doesn't change the battle. Same outcome with RNG mechanics in any order, even though the buried treasure is different depending on when Dowsing Rod is used before or after Promotion or Strength Potion or what have you.

I've been making gradual progress in RNG research. One way of maniping a Dream Crown or Trade Ticket is on Galf's stage that 100% and Devil paths play. There's a 4 Phantom + Sorcerer unit that the Sun card leaves the Sorcerer weak enough that my level 5 Canopus finishes off with Thunder and moves next. Then there's the 4 Wraith + Lich unit that, uniquely, is completely wiped out by Sun.

Obviously, this strategy dodges the half of the problem of maniping a neutral encounter. I recorded a Sharom Border test run on Saturn where I did pull a neutral Hawk Man. No item but the EXP gets the Opinion Leader a level up at Usar. Can see how slow this approach is:

Meanwhile, on Galf's stage, a level 16 Opinion Leader would level up from either Sun kill or get to 18 from both. This makes the approach low investment and you can deploy another unit to do it. Quite a bit more enemy units to work with using Sun + Death combo or defeating a 2nd or 3rd stage unit with Death, but either approach loses more time.

Of the 32 item pool, I wonder if Crystal Ball last in the list isn't obtainable in SNES, similar to how Nue's Shield isn't. 1 in 31 for the first 8 items, which includes Dream Crown and Undead Staff, I'll take it. I hacked in 200 Summoning Chimes to generate neutral encounters to get "the feel" of what I'm dealing with. The shortest amount of encounters between items was 2 and the longest 28. The theoretical 1 in 10 odds seem correct.

If there are 2 desirable items for 1 in ~16 odds, 1 in 160 odds is reasonable to manip. Summoning Charm sells for 25k goth or can sub as a Fool card with chance of failure. Blood Kiss sells for 31k, a Promotion is decent since it gives the full stat range on level up and AGI Potion on Debonair/Tristan has a 5-10 point spread. Kind of like raising accuracy 5%. Maybe 1 in 80 of a good outcome.

I tested Tarot cards for one Skeleton encounter I got an item on. Damage ones besides Judgment didn't change anything, proving the game checks if damage is possible and doesn't waste calling the RNG. I saw before Tower doesn't either if every target is Low/High Sky. Sun didn't change the item, implying item is rolled for once the unit is defeated. Judgment prevented obtaining any item, as did using a Joker. Not surprising but does mean we can advance the RNG, probably making any consistent starting frame from reset viable.

PlayStation would be perfect since the 5 class icons seem to uniquely determine what frame you loaded on but its RNG advances even on the item and battle menus and the time spent on text boxes.

Speaking of neutral encounters, I found the mechanics in my Sega Saturn official strategy guide. Plus other mechanics but all have been seen on Japanese websites. Main point is there was much less reverse engineering done in Ogre Battle than I thought. We're still in the Wild West.