Russiaral max from arcane, same for sewers 2, you can get ort - thul - amn - sol from Travincal`s Council Members first at normal part
Okay, this is most likely my mistake, I will try to correct it.
Thanks for the answer.
It seems to me that we have a misunderstanding, I ask about one thing, you answer about another. Maybe I can't formulate the question correctly.
Here is a list of rules for run verification
Tell me which rule I broke. If you are not guided by a rule, but by something else, I basically don’t understand this approach. I post my runs only so that other participants can check their times. It doesn't give me any benefit. If you don’t want me to post runs, I won’t, just tell me so, I don’t care.
I got WR, the video shows both participants and the entire run. Yes, there is only a backup video, but I indicated the start time of the run. When I have a normal video, I post it, there is no attempt at manipulation, disrespect or anything else.
My twitch record was broken due to disconnection, this is a backup record.
But I ask you to indicate the rule that I violated, a specific rule indicating my violation.
Hello Mekalb, could you please indicate which rules I violated, and not just reject my run.
I will not communicate with you personally, only publicly.
I don't think this conversation is a waste of time. Once again I was convinced that if anyone in the community uses cheats, then he is doing absolutely right. As I can see, including outside the forum, people believe in luck, I'm sure some people were not surprised at 9 amn drops from 9 consuls, because it's random and anything could happen. Many do not even closely understand math works. Dont know about normal distribution, that if you multiply the chance of event A from X attempts and event B from X attempts, you will not get the chance of getting event A and B for X attempts.
Im pretty sure that, if Egg hadn't been lazy and at least equalized the audio while editing, his records would still be on the ladder board. With the current rules and how many hours you should waste to get a good attempt, you probably just need to not respect yourself and your time to run without cheats.
The only post I agree with - Jymnasium`s post, that the "honor system" just doesnt work, moreover, it only contributes to the emergence of hidden aggression, which is even worse than open aggression.
This is a public conversation, I could just say that the logic is wrong, but the coin example shows this more clearly.
E(X) = μ = ∑ xipi, i = 1, 2, …, n. or, E(X) = x1p1 + x2p2 + … + xnpn
You can get more information here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial
The formula may look complicated, but now it's not the 18th century, most of the calculations are done for me by a calculator.
To calculate probabilities of dol io drops, I also used this method:
Once again, its not how probability theory works. Let me explain again with coin. Odds to get one tail with 2 toss would be 75% (TT+ , TH+, HT+, HH-), but to get two it would be 25% (TT+, TH-, HT-, HH-). 0.75*0.75 = 0.56, not 0.25. So you cannot just you can't just multiply the results. Its 9.8% for 1 amn, and 0.5% for 2, its not 0.098 x 0.098. For objectivity, it would not be bad if the calculations were not made by me.
Edit: for 132 attepms you should get something about 0.002% (1 : 50 000), but this is a very approximate and rounded calculation. For 63 attepms that should be much lower.
9.8% for exactly 1 amn 0.53% for exactly 2 amns 10% at least 1 amn 0.54% at least 2 amns
Edit: but there is 7 councils at 1 attempt and 7x9 = 63 at 9, so I dont understand why do you need odds for 132 tbh.
Wow, no your math are not correct, even if you kill 1212 with 1 to 1212 it wont be 100%, its like if you toss coin 2 times it wont be 100% tail, its not even close how math works.
Edit: 5% to get 1 to 1212 two times from 132 attemps ... I start to understand why you are not undestand what happend ...
Edit #2: 2 amn, 1 thul, 1 ort from 9 attempts is not 5%, its not 0.000001%, its impossible, you can spend your life with travincal farm, and you will never get that drop with 9 attemps. It could be only if you got very unique seed, because drop based at seed number, if you know how manipulate drop, or if you change drop odds before you start game.
There is a very big difference between one drop and a week farm. Any drop in the game, even пфы pot , has a 1% chance or less. However, a series of "happy" drops during the week with a 1% chance can happen only once a year.
The Necromancer is the most presentable, since there is an obvious goal to get white in the p1 lod category. I could have taken more researches on the necromancer runs, but it rarely took Bender more than 1-2 attempts to get the necessary runes and take the world record. This record was the only I ever made, I dont have that much free time to count every drop in every run. Moreover, after this situation, I stopped watching Bender's streams, I don't even know if he is streaming now or not.
Coincidentally, the only calculation I made was 5 Io in 45 attempts. It should be noted once again that just 5 Io is not enough even to start run 5 Dol also fell out with them, which also makes up 13% of luck.
The fact is that many people do not understand what luck is. It seems to them that yes, the Sanders fell and he took WR, but the record requires luck. It's a different type of luck, they just get the right items dropped more often than they should statistically.
Сould you be more open and at least mention what cheat do I use? There is no swapcast in d2r, and you can’t cast in the downloads, as I understand it, it should be my eyes looked at wrong direction on the webcam a couple of times during the run?
There is nothing to investigate here, obviously he is just lucky.
I thought a lot about what happened, and I think the situation in which we now is partly my fault. About two years ago, in my discord channel, I did an analysis of Bender's runs. I did not hide this from anyone, moreover, I said Bender about it before posting this information. However, my actions led to separation of the community. I can write whatever I want in my discord, but, my actions led to very bad consequences. I think it would be appropriate to release all my calculations to the public. I'm not accusing Bender of cheating, you just need to understand what the term "lucky" means.
I am not a mathematician, there may be errors in the calculations
Example 1
In this example, I took ALL of Benedr's runs that he did to get WR in the p1 hell necromancer category. I've noticed before that the Io rune falls very often on him. This time I decided to record all his races and make a calculation.
From the video it can be seen that in total for all his runs he killed 45 countess and get 5 runes of Io Let's take the probability of dropping the Io rune as 1 in 25.3
https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2-drop-calculator#d1;monster=super,6
I did my calculations with this calculator
https://portal.tpu.ru/SHARED/k/KONVAL/Sites/Russian_sites/calc_set/01-4.htm#
Binomial probability distribution in 45 trials: (probability of success in one trial p = 0.0395256916996047 )
P( 0) = 0.16287666 , P( 1) = 0.30162345 , P( 2) = 0.27307473 , P( 3) = 0.16107288 , P( 4) = 0.06959939 , P( 5) = 0.02348622 ,
Probability of no more than 5 successes = 0.9917333277255272 Probability of at least 5 successes = 0.03175288758291306
Poisson distribution: λ = np = 1.7786561264822116
P( 0) = 0.16886493 , P( 1) = 0.30035264 , P( 2) = 0.26711203 , P( 3) = 0.15836682 , P( 4) = 0.07042003 , P( 5) = 0.02505060 ,
Probability of no more than 5 successes = 0.990167043102967 Probability of at least 5 successes = 0.03488355941617827
Gaussian distribution: σ = (n p q)½ = 1.3070399813269915, ξ = m – n p = 3.2213438735177884
P( 0) = 0.12091959 , P( 1) = 0.25559613 , P( 2) = 0.30088028 , P( 3) = 0.19724909 , P( 4) = 0.07201420 , P( 5) = 0.01464209 ,
Probability of no more than 5 successes = 0.9613013889345298 Probability of at least 5 successes = 0.05334070274441949
As a result, we see that the probability of dropping 5 Io runes in 45 runs is approximately 1.5 - 3%. It should also be taken into account that Io runes alone are not enough, for 45 runs he also got 5 dol.
Example 2
11 runs 2 amn 1 Thul 1 Ort
https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2-drop-calculator#d0;monster=super,27
Amn 1:1218 Thul 1:409 Orth 1:272
The recording isn't the best quality, but it's the biggest system glitch I've ever seen on a Bender stream. Calculating the probability here does not make sense, it is impossible. Bender decided to try a new strategy for n1 Barb - farm travincal. If you watch his PB (https://www.speedrun.com/d2lod/run/zgg5xw0z) you will see the usual strategy - farming sarine. Record does not contain the end of this run - so the rest of the information is just my words with no evidence. After he get 2 amn runes, he just finished the stream, without trying to somehow finish this run.
I'm not going to draw any conclusions - I'm just posting information that I posted on my discord.
Again, this is my discord and I can write whatever I want in it, but having comprehended all that happened, it seems to me that I made a mistake to "hide" it.
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I can't say that Mekalb and I are close friends, but I have a lot of respect for him as strong speedrunner. I don't believe that Mekalb ever used illegal software. As for the MrLlama event, at this time all top-level speedrunners grind 12 hours everyday. Of course, someone had to be lucky, Mekalb get one, it happens.
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Regarding Bender's accusation of Vela cheats:
A) The accusation of maphacking does not make any sense. Vela has many strengths (mechanical play, strong emotional control) but his maps reading is still very low. Even in the world record, he can be lost in act3 maps (and not only there). The fact that his eyes are jumping (and where are your Bender eyes?) is just a consequence of a large monitor. If you look at my game, I sometimes even turn my head, although I play on one monitor. Veal also has eyes jumps in boss fights or farming from 52 to 58 lost cities, and I dont think he is doing it for "maphacking".
B ) No idea why Bender say about frozen armor frame perfect skills, try to choose frozen armor and its use in the load yourself and you will understand that there is nothing complicated about it
C) About swapcast - I can't tell if Vela uses macros or not. Again there are many other runners with 100% swapcasts like Bokser. As I see, a World Record holder should be able to swap at the perfect level, it's not that hard of a trick. Vela has world records without any swapcasts (druid or sorc), why would he spoil his reputation on other classes, if his skill allows him to do it without?
- As for the accusations against Bender. I do not consider accusations against anyone, but they must contain evidence. If Vela is willing to provide evidence, it should be considered. The fact that he is lucky is not evidence. Until there is evidence, there is nothing to talk about.
You can submit runs like this with current rules. You can submit p1 bnet runs at p1 cattegory (Using an online character for the runs is allowed, but only in co-op runs you're allowed to interact with other players). You can submit your "Ancients + Baal runs" to co-op category. For this moment there is not a lot of this runs. My personal opinion, it makes no sense to create a category for each run, especially if the current rules don`t have prohibitions.
There is a procedure for making submittion on this site. To enter the run requires the submission of the author. Ignoring this step can create negative reaction.
https://www.speedrun.com/d2r/run/y8j70xwz , cougars002 @LuckyLuciano_6 maybe that was my problems, video crashed every time at 3-30-50
Rules said all party members must complete normal or hell Baal. If part of the record is missing, but the validity of the run can be proved, it may be confirmed. Please provide the full video if possible, and don't abuse the rules.
