I don't have anything better to do with myself so I decided to look at the BBG setups a little closer.

From what I've seen, the two things that determine what kind of bullet bill shot you get is dependent on the framerule you get to 8-2, the enemies you kill in 8-2, and how long you slow down to get over the pipe in 8-2. So Looking at the original setup, I recorded what kind of bullet bill shot you got based on how long you slow down for the pipe. To do this, I did a bunch of attempts and looked at what frame Mario's back hand passed over the last bullet bill launcher. Mario moves more than one pixel per frame at full speed so, at least from what I can tell from my recording, there are three pixels in the x-direction that he could be in the first frame his hand clears the last bullet bill launcher. This seems to be a good predictor on what kind of shot you get but there still seems to be a bit of randomness due to his exact position and probably some subframe shenanigans.

So starting from RTA start and without any FPG or fast 4-2, Mario typically passes over the last bullet launcher in one of these seven frames:

Time% of attempts 3:22.216_4% 3:22.233_15% 3:22.250_15% 3:22.266_26% 3:22.283_21% 3:22.300_14% 3:22.316_5%

After ~200 attempts, the percentage that I hit that particular frame is shown above.

This is what I found for the original setup (waiting 1 framerule on start with no FPG or fast 4-2):

Framerule 529 on Pellison ROM TimeShotBB Shot Time 3:22.216_Un-optimal_3:22.882 3:22.233_Un-optimal_3:22.749 or 3:22.882 3:22.250_Optimal_3:22.499 3:22.266_Optimal/very rare Un-optimal_3:22.499 or 3:22.766(rare) 3:22.283_Un-optimal_3:22.766 3:22.300_Un-optimal or rare no shot_3:22.766 or no shot 3:22.316_Un-optimal_3:22.632 or 3:22.882

So for this framerule you only have two frames where it's possible to get optimal shot (bullet shoots at 3:22.499 always). The rest give you an un-optimal shot that shoots anywhere between 3:22.749 to 3:22.882. For my attempts, I got an optimal shot ~40% of the time. Its commonly reported that its 50/50 which I assume is probably true since I oddly didn't get 3:22.250 enough to make percentage distribution look even.

In the past week or so someone found another framerule that gives you an optimal shot consistently. To do this, you wait 11 framrules on start and do the same 8-2 setup as the original framerule (stomp no enemies until the two koopas right after the pipe jump).

This is what I got for the new framerule: Framerule 539 on Pellison ROM Time_ShotShot Time 3:22.216Optimal3:22.433 3:22.233Optimal3:22.433 or 3:22.483 or 3:22.549 3:22.250Optimal3:22.549 3:22.266Optimal3:22.549 3:22.283Optimal3:22.483 3:22.300Optimal or No Shot_3:22.483 or no shot 3:22.316Optimal or No Shot_3:22.483 or no shot

So this framerule is a lot better than the original. The only thing that can trip you up is that if you're slow then there's a chance you get no shot or if you get one of the 3:22.549 shots and are very late bouncing off the bullet bill to end the level. I'm not sure what the cutoff time is between saving one and two framerules but I've only saved one framerule on some of those 3:22.549 shots a couple times.

So I believe that I found a BBG setup that gives you an optimal shot consistently one framerule after the new setup above. This would mean waiting 12 framerules on start. Having BBG setups on two adjacent framerules is useful because it allows you to lose a framerule on your way to 8-2 and still gives you the opportunity to do BBG. The video below is how to do the setup. You just need to stomp two additional koopas in the same manner shown in the video.

These are my results when testing this framerule: Framerule 540 on Pellison ROM Time_ShotShot Time 3:22.216Optimal3:22.483 3:22.233Optimal3:22.483 3:22.250Optimal3:22.483 3:22.266Optimal3:22.483 3:22.283Optimal or No Shot_3:22.483 or no shot 3:22.300Optimal3:22.483 3:22.316Optimal3:22.483

So could somebody tryout this setup to verify that it works for them too or if any of this makes any sense to anyone?

edit: So discussing with andrewg this morning, this would be the WR strategy:

1. Wait -8.17 on the title screen
2. Do the 1-1 FPG and the 4-1 FPG
3. attempt the new fast 4-2. 4a) If you get fast 4-2, then you line up with 8-2 BBG framerule that mav/kosmic found 4b) if you get slow 4-2, then you'll be one framerule behind and line up with the BBG framerule that I found

I'm also trying to find another BBG setup on another adjacent framerule. Having 3 in a row will allow you to do the above strategy plus if you don't get fast 4-2 and get bad judges you can still do a BBG and make up a framerule by doing 8-3 FPG.