I know there's pretty much a very low chance for a "perfect" run having been done yet, and I mean something like TAS tier, but I'm curious how close the current runs are versus how low the time can get?
Also wondering how active the overall community is?
Hey, welcome on in! I have actually done a human-theory TAS, that still has some bugs to work out so isn't very accurate. That said though, sub 26 minutes should be possible for sure, as to exactly how deep into 25:xx is viable, I am not entirely sure. I would imagine 26:4x would probably be viable if someone where to really grind it.
As for the overall activity, it is sometimes pretty low, however, I have started de-rusting and going after WR again, and there is another new runner who I believe might also be going after WR. I think that is about all at this moment.
If you are thinking of running the game, it is a lot of fun, and the wing boot pausing strat isn't as difficult as it looks/sounds. I know if I am not at work and free, I would be watching any streamed attempts as well as a couple of other people that really enjoy the game. There is a small community that comes to hang out and watch, but not a lot of runners.
The current difference in Any% from TAS and WR is about 3:16, so not even close yet. Technically speaking, the TAS actually is in the Dagger% category too. Current TAS is 23:04.69
The main difference in the WR and the TAS is the wing boots extensions- the hardest trick used in speedruns right now is Ultimate Flight Plan, which extends one pair of wing boots to about 30 screens by wing boots pausing. The TAS takes this a step further and extends a wing boots and ointment to about double that length, as well as doing the same with ointment in the branch section. Lastly, the TAS doesn't death warp after the Demon Ring, but keeps an ointment and boots all the way to the end.
Theoretically if someone was an absolute god at doing boots extensions, this game could go much lower than it is now, likely sub 25. The skill ceiling for doing wing boots pausing is extremely high, requiring both near perfection in parts and actual perfection in others (King Grieve room sets ointment counter to 0, so holding that to the end of the game requires actual perfection). Realistically I don't see Any% going too far below 25 by human hands unless this game ends up getting the speedrun popularity of something like Mario.
Only other popular category is Deathless, which is far from optimized and could be taken relatively easily by someone skilled. The routing for it isn't even settled, so Deathless could probably be taken down to sub 32 or even 31 with a bit of work and some fresh ideas.
As far as currently active runners, I'm only aware of three or four- tundra, songbirder, NLeseul, and myself. I expect that if WR changes hands then shiner will likely return. Currently, the more active scene seems to be in the randomizer for this game, though it wouldn't surprise me if a few of the other top 10 runners show back up should more high level runs start popping up.
I do plan to return to Faxanadu, I'm just carrying out the last of my momentum with the extremely lengthy and deep RPG, SMT Nocturne. I should fill in streams that have failed runs with Faxanadu practice and attempts. Tundra and Bogledowdee seem to have better early game than my WR run, I don't think it'll stand for much longer. I don't believe sub 26 will be so easy to achieve but 26:09 seems within reach.