A while back I was chatting with Xkeeper about this game, and they dug around a bit in the game and found these values and I'm realizing I never shared them here where they'd actually be potentially useful:

Required weight to win:
Day 1  300 - 427
Day 2  480 - 607
Day 3  600 - 727
Day 4  700 - 827

I'm pretty sure most folks running this have a pretty decent idea of their own comfortable ranges for going back to the pier, but potentially helpful for some snap decision calculating odds for some? :P

Great info, thanks!

Based on these ranges and the approximate weight you're given when a marlin is initially caught, I put a quick program together to calculate the odds of winning each tournament for reference:

Florida (300-427)

• <=200 - 0%
• 300 ~ 9.9%
• 400 ~ 76.5%
• 500 - 100%

Hawaii 1 (480-607)

• <=400 - 0%
• 500 ~ 19.4%
• 600 ~ 87.09%
• 700 - 100%

Hawaii 2 (600-727)

• <=500 - 0%
• 600 ~ 9.9%
• 700 ~ 76.5%
• 800 - 100%

Hawaii 3 (700-827)

• <=600 - 0%
• 700 ~ 9.9%
• 800 ~ 76.5%
• 900 - 100%

Interesting to see the numbers.

Here are the CPU ranges and odds of winning for the Japanese version:

Florida (175-238)

• 100 - 0%
• 200 ~ 42.5%
• 300 ~ 100%

Hawaii 1 (265-328)

• <=200 - 0%
• 300 ~ 52.5%
• 400 ~ 100%

Hawaii 2 (325-388)

• <=200 - 0%
• 300 ~ 4.7%
• 400 ~ 87.8%
• 500 - 100%

Hawaii 3 (375-438)

• <=300 - 0%
• 400 ~ 42.5%
• 500 ~ 100%