Hello! My name's Pyro143. I'm fairly new to WarioWare: D.I.Y speedrunning, I did an Any% earlier this week with a 15:38 (thanks to a terrible 3 attempts on 9-Volt's boss stage) without video. Since I was interested in it, I decided to do some calculations on the RNG for WarioWare, and through it, I found some possible route changes for when the run becomes more and more optomized in terms of RNG. Here's what I found:

Having played WarioWare: D.I.Y for a lot of time, and watching a few other runs, I have come to the conclusion that the microgames do not repeat, at least for as long as it can. There are 18 microgames for each character, some which are 8 units long (Short), some which are 16 seconds long (Long). Each character has a different amount of microgames before the boss stage, which varies in RNG, and the 5 boss stages are the only ones that can be beaten before their timers are over. The 5 characters appear, and will be analyzed in this order: Mona, Jimmy T., Ashley, Orbulon, and 9-Volt.

All of Mona's microgames are Short, and the Boss Stage has undeterminable RNG (without hacking), so the fastest run (discounting skill) has an 100% chance of occuring.

Jimmy T's stage is a similar story to Mona, with the fastest run having an 100% chance of occuring.

Ashley's stage is where things start getting tricky. Out of her 18 microgames, 13 of them are Short, and 5 of them are Long. There are 11 microgames before the boss battle, and the boss battle has some determinable RNG. The chance that each of the 11 microgames are all Short can be represented as ((13!)(7!))/((18!)(2!)), or 1/408. This is .245% when represented as a percentage. However, the boss adds more RNG. The boss stage consists of tapping the screen when food is in the sandwich. There are 4 food items, and 3 non-food items, meaning the chance of getting a food item is 4/7. You need 3 food items in a row for fastest boss stage, so the chance of beating the boss stage with perfect luck is 64/343, or 18.7%. Combining the two, the chance of getting Fast Ashley is 8/17493, or .0457%.

Orbulon's stage needs by far the most luck. Out of their 18 microgames, 11 of them are Short, and 7 of them are Long. There are 11 microgames before the boss battle, and the boss battle has some determinable RNG. The chance that each of the 11 microgames are all 8 seconds ends up being 1/31824, or about .00314%. The boss stage consists of solving a tile puzzle. There are 2 possible puzzles, and I have run some experiments using https://alexyuisingwu.github.io/sliding-puzzle-solver/, and I found out that the with an empty space in the bottom right is one tile faster (I will be posting about this later), and there is an assumed luck of 1/2. Therefore, the chance of getting Fast Orbulon is 1/63648, or about .00157%.

9-Volt's stage needs the least luck out of the levels that need luck. Out of his 18 microgames, there are 15 Short microgames, and 3 Long microgames. The boss has no determinable RNG. There are 12 microgames before the boss stage. The chance that each of the 12 microgames are Short is 5/204, or 2.45%. Because there is no determinable RNG for the boss stage, there is a 5/204, or 2.45% chance for Fast 9-Volt.

Currently, the route follows the order of the characters as listed in this post. However, as the game becomes more optomized, it becomes less and less reasonable to have the levels with the least chance of luck. Therefore, I suggest a route like so: Orbulon, Ashley, 9-Volt, and then Mona & Jimmy T. in any order, although I, personally, would run Jimmy T., then Mona, because I am terrible at Jimmy T.'s boss stage. With the current ruleset, however, this is not possible, as the rules state that timing ends when the last coin in 9-Volt's boss stage is collected, so, unless a rule change is made, the current best route for RNG is Orbulon, Ashley, Jimmy T., Mona, then 9-Volt.

A lot of the levels need serious luck for a perfect run, while others need none, so I think the route should change to Orbulon -> Ashley -> 9-Volt -> Jimmy T.-> Mona.

Apologies if I was a little too formal, I'm new to speedrun.com and I don't know the vibe of forum posts very well.