As I'm starting to prepare a run for the full game, I'm curious how crazy the "No restarts" category is. Currently my win rate for each solitaire - when I'm focusing hard - is roughly:

• Sawayama - 50%
• Sigmar - 50% (still have to learn to look deep into the board)
• Proletariat - 80%
• Cribbage - 30% (*)
• Cluj - 80%
• Kabufuda - 40% (still learning too)
• ShenZhen - 70%
• Fortune - 30%

Sawayama & ShenZhen are the solitaire I've played the most (100-200 wins each), and I don't think I can improve the former much.

Assuming I kick off a "No restarts" run with a FF win and scratch it off that list, that means any run has about 0.5*0.5*0.8*0.3*0.8*0.4*0.7 = .... 1.3% chance to succeed :,-) So not statistically impossible I guess, but we're well into the crazy spend-dozen-hours-not-giving-up levels of speedrun efforts.

So what are your own win rates?

*EDIT: From Discord discussions, it looks like Cribbage, with its predictable seeds, can be 100%'d by resetting a save before a run. That brings up our chances to 4.5%.

Where did you get these numbers from? Intuition, manual counting or some built-in tracker in the game?

For me, Sawayama, Cribbage and Kabufuda currently feel the least consistent, maybe 60%, 40%, 30% respectively. Sigmar is 80-90% if I plan beforehand. Proletariat and Cluj are the easiest, around 90%. Shenzhen is also up there, maybe 70-80%, and Fortune is surprisingly high after practicing, maybe 70%.

That gives me 0.6 x 0.85 x 0.9 x 1 x 0.9 x 0.3 x 0.75 x 1 (assuming FF first and always the same game for Cabbage) = 9.3%. So around one in ten games, not so bad. I think it's just practice you need (or maybe my numbers are way off, I took then from my intuition)

The numbers are rough estimates from my own playthroughs, although I'm considering starting manual counts to gauge my progress.

Glad to hear that FF can yield good win rates with enough practice. That means you can get an even better chance (20% maybe?) by starting a run with a Kabufuda victory. 20% sounds quite reasonable :)

I find it odd you guys plan to do FF first, as it's known to always give solvable deals. I thought to start with Kabufuda, that only has 90%. Though maybe it doesn't matter if it's too hard for a human to actually approach the 100% on FF and easier to approach 90% on Kabufuda.

Yeah it was actually my point that if FF yields better win rates than Kabufuda maybe the latter is best to start a run.

Although personally, I'm way too inconsistent at FF for now (even a win can vary wildly in terms of duration), so I can't see myself start a 100% run with anything else.

EDIT: In the end I tried Kabufuda first for my 100% run. The FF segment took almost 9 minutes, I'll probably switch to FF first for my next attempts :,-)

I made a spreadsheet to track my win rates, if anyone else wants to use it here's a template you can copy.